(ANALYSIS) Here’s a religion and politics story from the 2024 election that I hadn’t really thought about until recently: J.D. Vance, Trump’s pick for vice president, converted to Catholicism in 2019.
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(ANALYSIS) The breakdown of the non-White evangelical vote may tell the story of the 2024 election when it comes to religion. Republicans have historically struggled with this group of voters. But it was essentially split in 2024 — Harris 49% and Trump at 48%.
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(ANALYSIS) It’s easy to label someone who never goes to church as nonreligious, but when you go one layer deeper — to the afterlife — you can see that there’s still a whole lot of people with some level of religious belief.
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(ANALYSIS) Now we are in the phase of cellphones, screen time and socialization. The data about the social lives of high school students is incredibly bleak and honestly makes me very worried for the next generation. Let me show you what I mean by generating a handful of graphs from this great dataset called Monitoring the Future.
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(ANALYSIS) Let’s start with the top line finding for me from the 2024 Cooperative Election Study. I continue to double and triple down on a statement that I made about a year ago: The rise of the nones is essentially over, for now. Let me show you what I mean.
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(ANALYSIS) Research from Scheitle and Cornell found that there’s often a significant mismatch between what the clergy say that they are speaking about and what is actually received by the congregants. Are they receptive to politically charged messages from the pulpit?
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(ANALYSIS) There’s this inherent tension in doing survey research. We are trying to get people to explain their thinking about things. I don’t know if that’s always possible. Asking people to reflect on how they construct their worldview may be trying to quantify smoke in a box, but it’s definitely worth some exploration.
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(ANALYSIS) I wanted to try and do some more data work on what drives religious attendance. So, that’s the point of this post — it’s just a journey through me trying to figure out what demographic factors make someone more or less likely to show up for church this Sunday.
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(ANALYSIS) It seems like I get asked about the transgender issue nearly every day. I readily admit that it may be the most caustic and divisive social issue of this era of the culture war. My goal here is to give you the very best estimates possible about the share of Americans who don’t currently identify as male or female in the U.S. and then describe the overall religiosity of this group.
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(ANALYSIS) Only about 30% of Americans can correctly answer basic questions about government institutions, public policy, etc. In other words, it’s a miracle that democracy works at all given just how little the average voter knows. But what happens when we throw religion in the mix?
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(ANALYSIS) Using FIRE’s recent survey of a bunch of college and university students, let me show you the religious composition of Harvard and Yale, compared to Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville, which is the epitome of a directional university in a flyover state.
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(ANALYSIS) My interest was piqued by a single question in the NSRL: “Would you perform the wedding of a same-sex couple if your religious group allowed it?” The reason I like it so much is because it doesn’t ask the respondent to describe the official position of their denomination; it asks the respondent about their personal position on the issue.
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(ANALYSIS) People want to know where the Cooperative Baptists are, or the Nazarenes, or the Wesleyans, or the Unitarian Universalists. I’ve done this enough to know that everyone wants to see their own tradition included in analysis. Let me pull back the curtain just a bit on why my favorite response has become, “I’m data limited.”
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(ANALYSIS) Both prophets and conspiracy theorists fulfill a human need to find order in chaos. This overlap raises intriguing questions: Are religious belief and conspiratorial thinking positively linked, as both require imaginative leaps? Or do religious frameworks provide all the mental scaffolding needed, leaving no room for conspiracy theories?
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(ANALYSIS) The span from 1991 to 1998, in my estimation, is the most consequential period of American religious history in the past five decades. For the 20 years prior, the share of young Americans who were Christians was about 85%, while the nonreligious portion never moved above 10%.
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(ANALYSIS) In a 14-year time period, support for same-sex marriage went from 31% to 68%. That’s just a stunning shift in such a short period of time. And because of the velocity of the change, we cannot attribute that to generational replacement.
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(ANALYSIS) Homeschooled kids constitute a population group that I’ve always wanted to try to understand better, but it’s a super hard methodological problem. There’s no central database that tracks them.
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(ANALYSIS) Trust in American institutions has eroded significantly over the last several decades — things like major companies, the federal government, and the scientific community. But given the name of this newsletter, I bet you can guess which institution I want to focus on today: organized religion.
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(ANALYSIS) Any presidential election causes a real problem for me. I do get asked to talk to reporters and do webinars and write pieces for major outlets about the role that faith played at the ballot box. There’s one issue: I just don’t have access to any reliable data for a very long time after an election.
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(ANALYSIS) Let me noodle around on that topic of polarization by using a nice question battery in the Cooperative Election Study. Along with religious affiliation, it asks folks to put themselves on an ideological scale that ranges from 1 (meaning very liberal) to 7 (meaning very conservative), while 4 is “middle of the road.”
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