Understanding the American Muslim Vote

(ANALYSIS) There may not be a more maligned religious group in the United States today than Muslims. While latent discrimination against this minority religious group dates back decades, outright antipathy toward American Muslims reached a fever pitch in the wake of Sept. 11, 2001 when many Americans (wrongly) placed the blame for the terrorist attacks on those who follow the teachings of Islam.

That resentment began to fade somewhat as Americans weathered the Great Recession and the national consciousness began to move on to other perceived enemies around the globe. However, the election of Donald Trump as president fomented that anger with Executive Order 13769 (often referred to as the “Muslim ban”). This order prohibited the Department of Homeland Security from allowing immigration to the U.S. from seven countries that had large Muslim populations.

Despite all the conversations about how the American government has treated followers of Islam in the U.S. and abroad, there has been very little written about how American Muslims situate themselves in the American political landscape. The data reveals a surprisingly complex picture of a religious group that can feel pulled in opposite directions on issues of policy and partisanship, still seeking to find an identity in American politics. 

First, it’s important to understand the size of the American population that identifies as Muslim. If the religious composition of the U.S. was represented by 100 people, 39 would be Protestants, 20 would be nothing in particular and 18 would be Catholics. Then the groups become much smaller. Atheists would be five people, agnostics would be five, and Jews would be two. Muslims, Mormons, Buddhists, and Hindus would only be represented by a single person each. And there is no evidence in data from the last 10 years that the population of Muslims is growing in any systematic way. In short, they are a very small fraction of Americans in the 21st Century and they are certainly nowhere close to taking over the country.

But, what about politics? It seems reasonable to assume that many Muslims would be hesitant to embrace the politics of the Republican party given that many members of the GOP expressed views that were Islamophobic after 9/11 and the current standard bearer of the party has been vocally opposed to Muslim immigration to the U.S. The data confirms that suspicion. 

While 46% of Americans identify as Democrats, it’s 67% of Muslims. Another 22% of Muslims also identify as political Independents. Just one in 10 Muslims associate with the Republican party, compared to 40% of the population as a whole.

However, that doesn’t tell the entire story. When survey questions turn to measures of political ideology, a different pattern emerges. When asked to describe their ideology as liberal, moderate or conservative just 30% of Muslims choose the “liberal” moniker - that’s statistically no different than the general population. What is also noteworthy is that half of all Muslims identify as political Independents, which is 20 points higher than the rest of the country. Just 18% of Muslims see themselves as conservatives, which is half as much as the general population.

Yet, despite the seeming reluctance for Muslims to embrace a liberal identity, Muslims voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton in 2016. She enjoyed 82% of their votes, while Donald Trump garnered just 14% of the Muslim vote. That disdain for Trump has continued as well. In data from 2018, over three quarters of Muslims disapproved of Trump’s job performance (64% indicated strong disapproval). In sum, their behavior on election day makes them a clear Democratic voting bloc.

When the analytical lens is turned to public opinion, it becomes clear that while Muslims prefer the Democrats at the ballot box, they may not be in lock step with the Democratic party on a number of policy issues.

For instance, 61% of Muslims support a woman’s right to choose an abortion. It’s 81% of all Democrats. Muslims are also slightly less likely to support gun control measures than Democrats. On issues of taxation, Muslims are evenly divided on tax cuts for corporations or the wealthy, while Democrats oppose both by large margins. And on immigration, it’s fair to say that Muslims aren’t as progressive as the average Democrat. 

Looked at broadly, it would be fair to say that Muslims are a solid Democratic constituency not because of what they stand for, but for what they stand against. In a two-party system where the other option is Donald Trump, Muslims must feel like they don’t have much of a choice. They faithfully cast their ballots for the Democrats, even though they don’t seem to be incredibly comfortable with their policy positions.

 Given their small size, it’s highly unlikely that Muslims will play a large role in the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. However, there is one case where they might tip the balance: Michigan. Recent estimates peg the Muslim population of the state at nearly 3%. Trump bested Hillary Clinton by 0.3% of the vote in Michigan in 2016. If Muslims turn out in large numbers and support Joe Biden, it may be enough to turn that state blue and hand the White House to the Democrats in 2020. 

Ryan Burge is an assistant professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, a pastor in the American Baptist Church and the co-founder and frequent contributor to Religion in Public, a forum for scholars of religion and politics to make their work accessible to a more general audience. His research focuses on the intersection of religiosity and political behavior, especially in the U.S. Follow him on Twitter at @ryanburge.