(ANALYSIS) Pundits were puzzled when, just in time for next week’s Democratic convention, nominee Kamala Harris chose folksy Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.

Her runner-up, popular Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, seemed the more obvious pick since his closely fought and must-win state claims 19 Electoral College votes, while Minnesota’s 10 should be winnable with or without Walz. Plus, Shapiro had appeal for moderates.

Harris would have weighed numerous factors in deciding, some presumably unknown, and don’t forget she’d be the first president with a Jewish spouse. But when introducing the new Harris/Walz ticket in Philadelphia, Shapiro declared, “I lean on my family, and I lean on my faith which calls me to serve. And I am proud of my faith!”

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That appeared to answer what Jewish Telegraphic Agency called an “online campaign from some progressives to keep him off the ticket because of his longstanding pro-Israel views.” Slogan: “Genocide Josh.”

Yet Shapiro’s approach to Israelis and Palestinians differed little from that of the non-Jews being considered for veep. Thus The Dispatch said stop-Shapiro efforts seemed “to be about the religious identity” of a devout Jew, one who attended a Hebrew academy where he met his wife. The New York Times asked, “Was her decision to sidestep Mr. Shapiro, some wonder, overly deferential to progressive activists who many Jews believe have veered past anti-Israel fervor into anti-Jewish bigotry?”  

Even before Harris named Walz, Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance was telling evangelical radio host Hugh Hewitt, “I think they will have not picked Shapiro, frankly, out of antisemitism in their own caucus and in their own party. I think it’s disgraceful the Democrats have gotten to this point where it’s even an open conversation.”

This extraordinary political year displays an increasingly multicultural America. Starting with Harris, she'd be the first Asian American to be president, the first with Hindu roots as signified by her name, the first female and first female African American. Despite Donald Trump’s feigned racial perplexity, her dual Black identity is equally obvious since she chose to attend Howard University and has been a member of San Francisco’s prominent Third Baptist Church for three decades.  

Vance — a onetime atheist — became a devoted adult convert to Catholicism only five years ago. He’d be the second Catholic vice president (after Joe Biden) and the first married to a Hindu. Walz would be the first lifelong Lutheran to be vice president. (That was Hubert Humphrey’s boyhood denomination. No Lutheran has yet been president). Then there’s the case of Trump. Is he the first U.S. president to label himself a Christian while shunning church membership?

Is there any sign Jews’ customary enthusiasm for Democrats will erode this year? In terms of practical politics, Jewish slippage wouldn’t flip any of the key states rated toss-ups by the authoritative Cook Political Report. Along with Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Cook last week significantly added Arizona, Georgia and Nevada as toss-ups. 

Here are a few points about these crucial states, using numbers for specific groups from the U.S. Religion Census issued in 2022 and broad population sectors estimated by the Pew Research Center: 

— Michigan (15 electoral votes) — Stands out for its estimated 242,000 Muslims. The largest Protestant group is 509,000 members of independent evangelical congregations, while the overall population is 25% evangelical (equaling the nationwide average for this, the largest U.S. religious bloc).  

— Pennsylvania (19) — Here too, the 662,000 evangelical independents rank first among Protestant groups though evangelicals are only 19% of residents, surpassed by less conservative mainline Protestants at 23%.

— Wisconsin (10) — Potentially Walz-friendly turf with 705,000 Lutherans. “Nones” without any religious affiliation are 25% (compared with 23% nationwide) and slightly outnumber the evangelicals at 22%.

— Arizona (11) — It’s 26% evangelical, including 403,000 independents, while the “nones” at 27% outnumber Catholics (21% and heavily Hispanic).  

— Nevada (6) — Its main blocs are “nones” at 28%, Catholics 25% (heavily Hispanic) and evangelicals at 20%.  

— Georgia (16) – Evangelicals are a commanding 38%, including 1.6 million Southern Baptists and 736,000 independents. The historically Black Protestant denominations claim 12% of the population.  

Pertinent 2023 Cooperative Election Study numbers on Biden’s approval ratings were analyzed in July by columnist Ryan Burge. Soon afterward, the wobbly Biden left the race, so these data only roughly suggest possibilities with his vice president — suddenly the nominee. 

Adding “strongly disapprove” with “somewhat disapprove” responses, we get these negative ratings for Biden: White evangelicals 81%, non-White evangelicals 55% and mainline Protestants (an oft-ignored faction) 58%. With Jews, the negatives were 43%, Muslims 42% and Black Protestants 29%.  

Today’s nonreligious and anti-religious voters are crucial for Democrats. Biden did well with atheists (39% negative) but less so with agnostics (48% negative), and with the larger body of other Americans lacking religious affiliation, he posted a surprisingly high 58% negative.

This writer repeatedly asserts that political journalists over-cover evangelicals, who automatically give Republicans lopsided majorities, and under-cover Catholics, classic swing voters who’ve long been trending Republican. Catholicism has by far the largest denominational membership in each of the above states except Georgia.

Burge reports that white Catholics “strongly” disapproved of fellow Catholic Biden by 48%-plus another 12% “somewhat” disapproved for a total 60% in the negative column. Among the non-White and largely Hispanic Catholics, it was 25% “strongly” and 19% “somewhat” unfavorable for a total of 44%. Those are dangerously poor ratings unless Harris/Walz now outshines the former Biden/Harris ticket. 

Finally, does the following carry religious as well as political significance?

Analysts remind us that in November 2020, the Brookings Institution calculated that Biden carried 520 U.S. counties with 52% of the voters, but 71% of the nation’s wealth as measured by gross domestic product. Trump’s 2,564 counties accounted for 48% of Americans but a dismal 29% of the economy.

Richard N. Ostling was a longtime religion writer with The Associated Press and with Time magazine, where he produced 23 cover stories, as well as a Time senior correspondent providing field reportage for dozens of major articles. He has interviewed such personalities as Billy Graham, the Dalai Lama, Mother Teresa and Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI); ranking rabbis and Muslim leaders; and authorities on other faiths; as well as numerous ordinary believers. He writes a bi-weekly column for Religion Unplugged.