Lies, damned lies, statistics: For Biden, religious vote was crucial — maybe
Weekend Plug-in 🔌
Editor’s note: Every Friday, “Weekend Plug-in” features analysis, fact checking and top headlines from the world of faith. Got feedback or ideas for this column? Email Bobby Ross Jr. at therossnews@gmail.com.
(ANALYSIS) In the 2020 election, what happened with the religious vote that was seen as so crucial to President Donald Trump’s upset win four years ago?
Take your pick:
• Not much changed, according to Religion News Service’s Yonat Shimron.
• A small decline in Trump support among White Catholics represented a slight but significant change, NPR’s Tom Gjelten suggested.
• President-elect Joe Biden “swung the religious vote” just enough to defeat Trump, Politico’s Gabby Orr reported.
• White evangelicals “stuck by” Trump and, despite Biden’s win, “still took heart in their strong presence at the polls and the GOP’s success in down-ballot races,” according to The Associated Press’ Elana Schor and David Crary.
• Biden closed the gap among White evangelicals to the tune of “well over four million votes nationally,” Biden supporter Michael Wear proclaimed in a New York Times op-ed.
Wait, what?
“I think there's been a bit of, ‘I'm going to read whichever exit polls make my efforts seem fruitful,’ among a certain group of people in the post-election time period,” said Ryan Burge, an assistant professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University. His research focuses on the intersection of religiosity and political behavior, especially in the U.S.
The problem, according to Burge, is that exit polling “is very unreliable.” He pointed to a USA Today column by Robert Griffin making the case that more time is needed for reliable analysis.
“The only data that I am trusting right now comes from the CCES. Which is not an exit poll but is the gold standard for political science now,” Burge said, referring to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study.
Numbers cited by Burge, a contributor to Religion Unplugged, indicate that “there's some movement among Mainline Protestants, but really none to speak of in other Christian groups.”
Stay tuned.
If the next four years are anything like the past four, we’ll analyze — and reanalyze — the religious vote until Election Day 2024.
Power Up: The Week’s Best Reads
1. L.A. megachurch pastor mocks pandemic health orders, even as church members fall ill: When it comes to the coronavirus, John MacArthur is an atheist.
“There is no pandemic,” MacArthur has said of COVID-19.
That revealing quote opens Los Angeles Times writer Jaclyn Cosgrove’s in-depth story on the 81-year-old pastor and his Southern California megachurch’s defiance of a government order against meeting indoors.
2. After Hurricane Dorian, a layup helped the Bahamas rebuild: Every now and then, the news could use a few warm fuzzies.
Here is one, courtesy of Associated Press sports writer Tim Reynolds:
Nathan Bain provided one of college basketball’s signature moments last season, a buzzer-beating layup in overtime to give unheralded Stephen F. Austin a stunning upset over Duke on Nov. 26. 2019. Duke was the No. 1 team in the country at the time and hadn’t lost a nonconference game on its home floor in nearly 20 years.
But that became just a sliver of the story that night. Bain’s layup won a game — and rebuilt a home, rebuilt a school and rebuilt a church, all of it directly impacting the lives of hundreds of Bahamians.
“It was a game and it became a bigger cause,” Bain said. “More often than not, people want to do the right thing. And I think that’s what happened with us, that people just saw the opportunity to be good human beings.”
3. Alex Trebek dies at 80; host of ‘Jeopardy!’ was educated in Catholic schools: Back in January, we highlighted the complicated faith of the beloved game show host.
This week, as millions of fans mourned Trebek’s death from pancreatic cancer, Catholic News Service’s Carol Zimmermann recalled the lessons that the native Canadian learned attending Jesuit schools as a boy.
More Top Reads
• He cast his first vote as a U.S. citizen. Now, he’s eager for the ‘Muslim ban’ to go (by Sarah Pulliam Bailey, Washington Post)
• Christian conservatives respond to Trump’s loss and look ahead (by Elizabeth Dias and Ruth Graham, New York Times)
• Can Joe Biden heal a divided nation — and his own Catholic Church? (by Christopher White, National Catholic Reporter)
• Muslim voters want more than ‘just a seat’ at the table from President-elect Joe Biden (by Sarah Parvini, Los Angeles Times)
• The Jewish background of Ron Klain, Biden’s pick for White House chief of staff (by
Jacob Kornbluh, Jewish Insider)
• Celebrity pastor Carl Lentz’s alleged lover tells all: ‘I was a drug to him’ (by Hannah Frishberg, New York Post)
• Still saintly? Vatican’s new report on McCarrick may complicate the legacy of Pope John Paul II (by Michelle Boorstein and Sarah Pulliam Bailey, Washington Post)
• Dominican sister uses faith to help others as COVID contact tracer (by Danae King, Columbus Dispatch)
• Lord Sacks obituary: Former chief rabbi was admired far beyond the Jewish world (by Jenni Frazer, The Guardian)
• Pro-life women surge in Congress (by Megan Fowler, Christianity Today)
• Moody Bible Institute rocked by allegations it mishandled sex misconduct claims (by Madeline Kenney, Chicago Sun-Times)
Inside The Godbeat: Behind The Bylines
We now turn to Houston Chronicle religion writer Robert Downen for some expert analysis:
A “hearty laugh” is how Downen’s newspaper characterized televangelist Kenneth Copeland’s response to Joe Biden’s projected win in the 2020 election.
Other media reports used a different term to describe the video (viewed millions of times on social media): “maniacal.”
Charging Station: In Case You Missed It
Here is where you can catch up on recent news and opinions from Religion Unplugged.
• U.S. election divides Kenyan Christians (by Tom Osanjo)
• What role does religion play in Supreme Court justices’ nominations and decisions? (by Richard Ostling)
• Religions For Peace leader Azza Karam shows the role of women in faith and diplomacy (by Ken Chitwood)
• Religious Freedom Lately: Cardinal Pell's revenge, Japan's new prince and UAE won't arrest you for suicide (by Timothy Nerozzi)
• Many Catholics left politically 'homeless' after Biden win (by Terry Mattingly)
• 'Culture of clericalism': Firestorm of letters fly from cardinals, bishops following McCarrick report (by Timothy Nerozzi)
• McCarrick report: Vatican hierarchy downplayed past sex abuse reports (by Clemente Lisi)m
• The disappearing mosques in Xinjiang (by Ewelina U. Ochab)
• Bishop Harry Jackson Jr., Trump adviser, found dead at home (by Hamil R. Harris)
• Survey Of millennials and Gen Z: Many Americans just don't get the Holocaust (by Terry Mattingly)
• In the Armenia-Azerbaijan War, religious nationalism threatens peace agreement (by Jade Lévin)
• Biden elected second Catholic U.S. president In history: What does it mean for a divided nation? (by Clemente Lisi)
The Final Plug
NASA astronaut Victor Glover is part of a four-person crew set to lift off this weekend on a six-month mission to the International Space Station.
I interviewed Glover about his faith for The Christian Chronicle.
“I actually sent up communion cups and a Bible, and we have really good internet connectivity,” he said of his plans for worship 250 miles above Earth. “So honestly, I will probably continue in what we’ve been doing: virtual service, virtual giving, reading my Bible and praying,”
Watch the launch at 7:27 p.m. EST Sunday on NASA TV.
Bobby Ross Jr. is a columnist for Religion Unplugged and editor-in-chief of The Christian Chronicle. A former religion writer for The Associated Press and The Oklahoman, Ross has reported from all 50 states and 15 nations. He has covered religion since 1999.